A farkon watan Oktoba, farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe ya fuskanci koma-baya na ɗan gajeren lokaci, galibi saboda ci gaban da ake sa ran samu a ribar buƙata da kuma ƙaruwar farashin jigilar kaya a teku. Duk da haka, yayin da masana'antun ƙarfe suka ƙarfafa ƙuntatawa na samar da kayayyaki kuma a lokaci guda, ƙimar jigilar kaya a teku ta faɗi sosai. Farashin ya faɗi ƙasa sosai a cikin shekarar. Dangane da farashi mai kyau, farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe a wannan shekarar ya faɗi da fiye da kashi 50% daga babban matsayi, kuma farashin ya riga ya faɗi. Duk da haka, daga mahangar tushen wadata da buƙata, ƙimar kayayyakin tashar jiragen ruwa ta yanzu ta kai matsayi mafi girma a cikin wannan lokacin a cikin shekaru huɗu da suka gabata. Yayin da tashar jiragen ruwa ke ci gaba da taruwa, ƙarancin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na wannan shekarar zai yi wuya a canza.
Har yanzu jigilar ma'adanai na yau da kullun yana ƙaruwa
A watan Oktoba, jigilar ma'adinan ƙarfe a Ostiraliya da Brazil ta ragu kowace shekara da kuma wata-wata. A gefe guda, hakan ya faru ne saboda kula da ma'adinan. A gefe guda kuma, yawan jigilar ma'adinan teku ya shafi jigilar ma'adinan ƙarfe a wasu ma'adanai zuwa wani mataki. Duk da haka, bisa ga lissafin da aka yi niyya a shekarar kuɗi, wadatar ma'adinan guda huɗu a kwata na huɗu za ta sami wani ƙaruwa shekara-shekara da wata-wata.
Yawan fitar da ma'adinan ƙarfe na Rio Tinto a cikin kwata na uku ya ragu da tan miliyan 2.6 kowace shekara. A cewar ƙimar Rio Tinto ta shekara-shekara ta ƙarancin tan miliyan 320, yawan fitar da ma'adinan ƙarfe na kwata na huɗu zai ƙaru da tan miliyan 1 daga kwata na baya, raguwar shekara-shekara ta tan miliyan 1.5. Yawan fitar da ma'adinan ƙarfe na BHP a kwata na uku ya ragu da tan miliyan 3.5 kowace shekara, amma ya ci gaba da burin shekarar kuɗi na tan miliyan 278-288 ba tare da canzawa ba, kuma ana sa ran zai inganta a kwata na huɗu. FMG ya yi jigilar kaya sosai a cikin kwata na farko na uku. A kwata na uku, yawan fitar da ma'adinan ya ƙaru da tan miliyan 2.4 kowace shekara. A shekarar kuɗi ta 2022 (Yuli 2021-Yuni 2022), an ci gaba da kiyaye jagorar jigilar ma'adinan ƙarfe tsakanin tan miliyan 180 zuwa 185. Ana kuma sa ran ƙaramin ƙaruwa a kwata na huɗu. Yawan samar da Vale a cikin kwata na uku ya karu da tan 750,000 kowace shekara. Dangane da lissafin tan miliyan 325 na tsawon shekara guda, yawan samar da shi a kwata na hudu ya karu da tan miliyan 2 daga kwata na baya, wanda zai karu da tan miliyan 7 kowace shekara. Gabaɗaya, yawan samar da ma'adinan ƙarfe na manyan ma'adanai guda huɗu a kwata na huɗu zai karu da tan miliyan 3 kowane wata da kuma tan miliyan 5 kowace shekara. Duk da cewa ƙarancin farashi yana da ɗan tasiri ga jigilar ma'adinai, manyan ma'adanai har yanzu suna da riba kuma ana sa ran za su cimma burinsu na cikakken shekara ba tare da rage jigilar ma'adinan ƙarfe da gangan ba.
Dangane da ma'adanai marasa amfani, tun daga rabin shekara ta biyu, shigo da ma'adinan ƙarfe daga ƙasashen da ba na asali ba daga China ya ragu sosai duk shekara. Farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe ya faɗi, kuma fitowar wasu ma'adinan ƙarfe masu tsada ta fara raguwa. Saboda haka, ana sa ran shigo da ma'adanai marasa amfani daga ƙasashen da ba na asali ba zai ci gaba da raguwa kowace shekara, amma tasirin da aka samu ba zai yi yawa ba.
Dangane da ma'adinan cikin gida, duk da cewa sha'awar samar da ma'adinan cikin gida na raguwa, idan aka yi la'akari da cewa takunkumin samarwa a watan Satumba yana da ƙarfi sosai, yawan ma'adinan ƙarfe da ake fitarwa a kowane wata a cikin kwata na huɗu ba zai yi ƙasa da na watan Satumba ba. Saboda haka, ana sa ran ma'adinan cikin gida za su kasance ba su da ƙarfi a cikin kwata na huɗu, tare da raguwar kusan tan miliyan 5 na shekara-shekara.
Gabaɗaya, an sami ƙaruwa a jigilar ma'adanai na yau da kullun a cikin kwata na huɗu. A lokaci guda, idan aka yi la'akari da cewa samar da baƙin ƙarfe na alade a ƙasashen waje yana raguwa kowane wata, ana sa ran adadin baƙin ƙarfe da aka aika zuwa China zai sake dawowa. Saboda haka, ma'adinan ƙarfe da aka aika zuwa China zai ƙaru kowace shekara da kuma wata-wata. Ma'adinan da ba na yau da kullun ba da ma'adinan cikin gida na iya samun ɗan raguwa kowace shekara. Duk da haka, ɗakin raguwar wata-wata yana da iyaka. Jimlar wadatar da ake samu a kwata na huɗu har yanzu yana ƙaruwa.
Ana kiyaye kayan tashar jiragen ruwa a cikin yanayi na gajiya
Tarin ma'adinan ƙarfe a tashoshin jiragen ruwa a rabin shekara na biyu a bayyane yake, wanda hakan kuma yana nuna ƙarancin wadata da buƙatar ma'adinan ƙarfe. Tun daga watan Oktoba, yawan tara ma'adinan ya sake ƙaruwa. Ya zuwa ranar 29 ga Oktoba, adadin ma'adinan ƙarfe na tashar jiragen ruwa ya karu zuwa tan miliyan 145, mafi girman ƙima a cikin wannan lokacin a cikin shekaru huɗu da suka gabata. Dangane da lissafin bayanan wadata, adadin ma'adinan tashar jiragen ruwa na iya kaiwa tan miliyan 155 a ƙarshen wannan shekarar, kuma matsin lamba a wurin zai fi girma nan da lokacin.
Tallafin da ke gefen farashi ya fara raguwa
A farkon watan Oktoba, an samu ɗan koma-baya a kasuwar ma'adinan ƙarfe, wani ɓangare saboda tasirin hauhawar farashin jigilar kaya a teku. A wancan lokacin, jigilar C3 daga Tubarao, Brazil zuwa Qingdao, China ta taɓa kusan dala $50/ton, amma an sami raguwa sosai kwanan nan. Jirgin ya faɗi zuwa dala $24/ton a ranar 3 ga Nuwamba, kuma jigilar kaya daga Yammacin Ostiraliya zuwa China ta kasance dala $12 kacal. /Ton. Farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe a manyan ma'adanai yana ƙasa da dala $30/ton. Saboda haka, kodayake farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe ya faɗi sosai, ma'adinan har yanzu yana da riba, kuma tallafin da ake bayarwa daga farashi zai yi rauni.
Gabaɗaya, duk da cewa farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe ya faɗi ƙasa a cikin shekarar, har yanzu akwai sarari a ƙasa ko daga mahangar wadata da buƙata ko kuma daga ɓangaren farashi. Ana sa ran yanayin rauni zai ci gaba da canzawa a wannan shekarar. Duk da haka, ana sa ran farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na gaba zai iya samun tallafi kusan yuan 500/ton, saboda farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na musamman wanda ya yi daidai da farashin ma'adinan yuan 500/ton yana kusa da yuan 320/ton, wanda yake kusa da matakin mafi ƙasƙanci a cikin shekaru 4. Wannan kuma zai sami tallafi a farashi. A lokaci guda, a ƙarƙashin tushen cewa ribar kowace tan na ma'adinan ƙarfe har yanzu yana da yawa, akwai yiwuwar samun kuɗi don rage rabon ma'adinan ƙadangare, wanda a kaikaice ke tallafawa farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe.