Idan aka yi la'akari da shekarar 2024, buƙatar cikin gida ta yi rauni, wadatar ta ci gaba da ƙaruwa, kuma farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na yanzu yana fuskantar matsin lamba na raguwa a ƙarƙashin tsarin wadata da buƙata. Manufofin cikin gida da na ƙasashen waje sun samar da ƙarfin haɓakawa a hankali.
Sharhin Yanayin Farashin Ma'adinai a 2024
Za a iya raba yanayin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe gaba ɗaya a shekarar 2024 zuwa matakai huɗu.
Mataki na I: A cikin kwata na farko na 2024, an cika tsammanin manufofin cikin gida, ƙimar tsarin baƙar fata ta ragu, an yi jinkiri akai-akai game da rage ƙimar riba na Babban Bankin Tarayya, manufofin Zaman Majalisar Dokoki Biyu na Ƙasa sun yi daidai da tsammanin, ƙimar ci gaban da aka yi niyya na GDP (jimillar kayan cikin gida), ƙimar gibin da aka yi niyya, da kuma haɗin kuɗin baitulmali na musamman na yuan tiriliyan 1 bai wuce tsammanin kasuwa ba, buƙatar ƙarshen ya yi rauni, dawo da buƙatun ƙarfe na cikin gida bai kai yadda ake tsammani ba, tare da babban ƙaruwar jigilar ma'adinai a ƙasashen waje, yawan ma'adinan cikin gida ya karu fiye da na yanayi, kuma ƙimar ma'adinan ƙarfe ya yi yawa. A ƙarƙashin dabarun ra'ayi mara kyau, farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe ya faɗi da sauri da sauri fiye da yadda ake tsammani.
Mataki na biyu: daga farkon Afrilu 2024 zuwa ƙarshen Mayu 2024, "ra'ayoyi masu kyau" na masana'antar, ƙimar wadata da buƙata ta inganta, ƙimar jerin baƙi a kwata na farko ta faɗi sosai, tsammanin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na duniya ya fara ƙaruwa a watan Afrilu, buƙatar tashar jiragen ruwa ta cikin gida ta farfaɗo kuma ta fi yadda ake tsammani, a ƙarƙashin sabon daidaiton samar da ƙarfe da buƙata, ribar da kamfanonin ƙarfe suka samu ta karu sosai, buƙatar cikin gida ta ci gaba da ƙaruwa, wadatar ma'adinai a ƙasashen waje ta ragu wata-wata, ƙimar wadata da buƙata ta ma'adinan ƙarfe ta inganta, tare da sabuwar manufar gidaje ta cikin gida "17 ga Mayu", ƙarin ƙarin manufofin haɓaka yarjejeniyar baitulmali na musamman na dogon lokaci, farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na yanzu ya kai wani sabon mataki mafi girma.
Mataki na Uku: Daga 23 ga Mayu, 2024 zuwa 23 ga Satumba, 2024, ma'adinan ƙarfe sun nuna yanayin wadata mai ƙarfi da ƙarancin buƙata. A lokacin lokacin da ake shirin fara amfani da manufofin macro, ciniki a kasuwa ya nuna ƙarancin gaskiya, kuma farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na yanzu ya kai kololuwa kuma ya faɗi na ɗan lokaci. Tare da aiwatar da manufofin gidaje masu kyau a ƙarshen Mayu da kuma tsammanin raguwar riba da manufofin ƙarfe na ɗanyen mai suka haifar, farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na yanzu yana ci gaba da faɗuwa. Tare da fitar da cikakkun dokoki don daidaita manufofin gidaje a birane da yawa a faɗin ƙasar, tare da fitar da "Tsarin Aiki na Kare Makamashi da Rage Carbon na 2024-2025" na Majalisar Jiha a ranar 30 ga Mayu, aiwatar da tsauraran matakan maye gurbin ƙarfin samar da ƙarfe, da ci gaba da ƙa'idojin samar da ƙarfe na ɗanyen mai a 2024, tsammanin kasuwa na raguwar buƙatar ma'adinan ƙarfe ya fara yin ƙarfi. Daga tsakiyar watan Yuli zuwa 19 ga Agusta, binciken "kuɗin fitarwa" da manufofin hana zubar da ƙarfe na ƙasashe da yawa kan ƙarfe da aka fitar sun danne ƙimar jerin baƙaƙe. 'Yan kasuwa sun mayar da hankali kan sayar da tsohon ƙarfe na zamani, wanda hakan ke ƙara ta'azzara mummunan fata a kasuwa. Ribar kamfanonin ƙarfe ta ragu cikin sauri, ma'adanai a ƙasashen waje sun ci gaba da samun wadataccen mai, matakan kaya a tashoshin jiragen ruwa sun ci gaba da ƙaruwa, kuma farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe ya ci gaba da raguwa har zuwa ranar 23 ga Satumba.
Mataki na 4: Tsammanin karuwar tattalin arziki ya ƙara ƙarfi, buƙatar cikin gida tana tallafawa farashi, tsammanin manufofin cikin gida da na waje sun yi tasiri, kuma ƙungiyoyin baƙar fata sun fuskanci babban koma-baya. A ranar 19 ga Satumba, Babban Bankin Tarayya ya rage ƙimar riba da maki 50 don fara zagayowar rage ƙimar riba, kuma tattalin arzikin ƙasashen waje ya ci gaba da jurewa; A ranar 24 ga Satumba, Bankin Jama'a na China, Hukumar Kula da Kuɗi ta Jiha, da Hukumar Kula da Tsaro ta China sun gudanar da taron manema labarai don ƙara ƙaddamar da jerin manufofin ƙarfafa gwiwa. Manufar kuɗi ta kasance mai ƙarfi a cikin ƙaruwa, tare da "kibiyoyi uku" na rage ƙimar buƙatun ajiya, rage ƙimar riba, da rage ƙimar riba don lamunin gidaje da ake da su. Manufofin sun cika tsammanin kuma sun wuce tsammanin, tare da tsammanin sake cika ma'adinan ƙarfe kafin hutun Ranar Ƙasa da kuma sake dawowar buƙatun ƙarshe bayan hutu, wanda ya haifar da hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na cikin gida. Tare da fahimtar kyakkyawan fata a ranar 8 ga Oktoba, farashin baƙar fata ya kai kololuwar wucin gadi, kuma ribar tanderun fashewa na cikin gida ta kasance mai yawa, wanda ya kiyaye wani matakin sassauci a cikin buƙatar ma'adinan ƙarfe. Tare da raguwar samar da ma'adanai a ƙasashen waje a kwata na huɗu, daidaiton wadatar da ma'adinan ƙarfe da buƙata ya yi tsauri na ɗan lokaci, wanda hakan ya taimaka wa farashi ya ci gaba da hauhawa.
Hasashen yanayin kasuwar ma'adinan ƙarfe a shekarar 2025
Marubucin ya yi imanin cewa yanayin wadatar da mai da ƙarancin buƙatar ma'adinan ƙarfe a shekarar 2025 yana da wuya a canza, kuma farashin zai ci gaba da raguwa.
Dangane da wadata, karuwar samar da ma'adinan ƙarfe a duniya nan da shekarar 2025 zai kai kimanin tan miliyan 69 (idan aka yi la'akari da cewa farashin ya ci gaba da kasancewa sama da dala $100/tan). Dangane da rabon jigilar kaya, an kiyasta cewa jimillar karuwar samar da ma'adinan ƙarfe a cikin gida nan da shekarar 2025 ya kai kimanin tan miliyan 46.9, ciki har da tan miliyan 21.65 daga ma'adinan da aka fi amfani da su, tan miliyan 15.25 daga ma'adinan da ba na yau da kullun ba, da kuma tan miliyan 10 daga ma'adinan cikin gida.
Dangane da buƙata, buƙatar ma'adinan ƙarfe na ƙasashen waje zai ci gaba da raguwa a shekarar 2025. Tare da saurin haɓakar masana'antu da masana'antu masu tasowa a China, ƙarfe na masana'antu yana nuna yanayin girma mai girma, babba, da girma. A halin yanzu, yanayin buƙata ya fi kasuwar gidaje kyau, kuma manyan abubuwan jan hankali da haɗari suna cikin fitar da gidaje da masana'antun masana'antu. An kiyasta cewa buƙatar ma'adinan ƙarfe na cikin gida na iya raguwa da kusan kashi 1% nan da shekarar 2025.
Dangane da farashi, wadatar da ake samu da buƙatar ma'adinan ƙarfe za su ci gaba da raguwa a shekarar 2025, kuma farashin zai ci gaba da raguwa zuwa dala 100/ton, tare da canjin yanayin tsakanin dala 85/ton zuwa dala 115/ton. Karin manufofin macro a rabin farko na shekara ya fi yawa, kuma karuwar samar da kayayyaki ta fi yawa a rabin na biyu na shekara. Gabaɗaya yanayin farashi yana da yawa a gaba da ƙasa a baya, kuma bambancin farashi tsakanin watannin ma'adinan ƙarfe da kasuwannin cikin gida da na ƙasashen waje na iya ƙara matsewa. Idan farashin ya kusanci ƙasa, zai yi tasiri ga ma'adinan da ake samarwa a cikin gida da waɗanda ba na yau da kullun ba tare da ƙarin farashin samarwa, kuma za a sami ƙaruwar farashin.
A taƙaice, marubucin ya ba da shawarar yin aiki a cikin wani takamaiman yanayi, musamman ga kamfanonin samarwa waɗanda ke da yawan odar farashi mai yawa, don ƙara matsayin shingen kayansu a cikin ƙananan matakan da kuma daidaita ribar samarwa.