Rashin isasshen ƙarfin tuƙi
A gefe guda, daga mahangar sake dawo da masana'antar ƙarfe, har yanzu tana da tallafi; a gefe guda kuma, daga mahangar farashi da tushe, an ɗan yi wa ma'adinan ƙarfe ƙima kaɗan. Duk da cewa har yanzu akwai ƙarfi ga ma'adinan ƙarfe a nan gaba, muna buƙatar mu kasance cikin shiri game da haɗarin raguwar da za ta iya faruwa.
Tun lokacin da kasuwar ma'adinan ƙarfe ta fara ƙaruwa a ranar 19 ga Nuwamba na bara, kwangilar 2205 ta sake dawowa daga ƙarancin yuan 512/ton zuwa yuan 717.5/ton, ƙaruwar kashi 40.14%. Faifan yanzu yana ciniki a gefe kusan yuan 700/ton. Daga mahangar yanzu, a gefe guda, daga mahangar sake fara samar da masana'antar ƙarfe, har yanzu ana tallafawa ma'adinan ƙarfe; a gefe guda kuma, daga mahangar farashi da tushe, ma'adinan ƙarfe yana da ɗan ƙima. Idan aka duba gaba, marubucin ya yi imanin cewa duk da cewa ma'adinan ƙarfe har yanzu yana da ƙarfi a yanzu, ya zama dole a yi taka tsantsan game da haɗarin raguwar da ke tattare da shi.
sakin da aka yi mai kyau ya ƙare
Abubuwan da suka haifar da karuwar ma'adinan ƙarfe a farkon matakin sune tsammanin sake fara samarwa daga masana'antun ƙarfe da kuma ainihin buƙatar bayan saukar da ake sa ran yi. Abubuwan da ake sa ran samu a yanzu suna zama gaskiya a hankali. Bayanai sun nuna cewa a ranar 24 ga Disamba na bara, jimillar kayan masana'antar ƙarfe + kayan masana'antar teku sun kai tan 44,831,900, wanda ya karu da tan miliyan 3.0216 daga watan da ya gabata; a ranar 31 ga Disamba na bara, kayan masana'antar ƙarfe + kayan masana'antar teku sun kai tan 45,993,600, kowane wata. Karin tan 1,161,700. Bayanan da ke sama sun nuna cewa ƙarancin dabarun kaya da masana'antar ƙarfe ta ci gaba da yi tsawon rabin shekara ya fara raguwa, kuma masana'antar ƙarfe ta fara sake cika kayan. Farfadowa a Shugang da kuma lalata kayan kasuwanci a karon farko tun daga Satumba 2021 suma sun tabbatar da hakan.
Idan aka tabbatar da sake cika masana'antar ƙarfe, muna buƙatar la'akari da batutuwa biyu: Na farko, yaushe ne sake cika masana'antar ƙarfe zai ƙare? Na biyu, tsawon lokacin da za a ɗauka kafin a sake dawo da samarwa don nuna dawo da ƙarfen da aka narke? Dangane da tambaya ta farko, gabaɗaya, idan masana'antar ƙarfe ta cika ma'ajiyar lokaci-lokaci kawai, tsawon lokacin ba zai wuce makonni uku ba. Idan buƙatar ta ci gaba da kyau, masana'antar ƙarfe za ta ci gaba da ƙara yawan kaya, wanda ke nuna ci gaba da motsi na tsakiyar tashar jiragen ruwa, yawan ciniki, da kuma kayan injin ƙarfe. A halin yanzu, masana'antar ƙarfe sun fi son sake cika rumbunansu a matakai, galibi saboda dalilai masu zuwa: Na farko, yankin kudu, wanda ke iya ci gaba da samarwa akai-akai, zai kawo raguwar amfani da ƙarfi a watan Janairu; Saboda ƙarancin samarwa a kaka da hunturu da kuma Olympics na hunturu, da wuya a sami ƙaruwa sosai, kuma babu wani sharaɗi na ci gaba da sake samarwa; Na uku, a Gabashin China, wanda shine babban ƙarfin da ake da shi na dawo da samarwa, ana sa ran yawan amfani da ƙarfin zai sake dawowa da kashi 10%-15%, Amma idan ka duba daga kwatancen kwance, a lokacin bikin bazara tsawon shekaru, iyakokin sake dawo da samarwa har yanzu suna da iyaka. Saboda haka, muna tunanin cewa sake cikawa da sake dawo da samarwa na baya-bayan nan duk an tsara su a matakai.
Dangane da tambaya ta biyu, ana sa ran ƙarfen da aka narke zai karu a watan Janairu, inda zai kai matakin tan miliyan 2.05 zuwa tan miliyan 2.15 a kowace rana. Amma tunda an fara aikin samar da ƙarfe a mataki na farko, sake dawowar ƙarfen da aka narke a cikin 'yan makonni masu zuwa ba zai sami ci gaba na dogon lokaci a kan faifai ba.
Babban ƙima
Da farko dai, daga mahangar kimantawa, farashin da aka riga aka fara samu ya yi yawa idan aka kwatanta da muhimman abubuwa. A kwatancen kwance, raƙuman ƙarshe sun fara daga sayar da su fiye da kima, zuwa ga tsammanin sake fara ciniki, zuwa ga tsammanin sake cika masana'antun ƙarfe, kuma ƙaruwa da faɗuwar fitar da ƙarfe mai narkewa sun bayyana a kasuwa daga ƙarshen Satumba zuwa farkon Oktoba na bara, lokacin da farashin faifai ya yi tsada. Kimanin yuan 800/ton. A wancan lokacin, adadin tashar ma'adinan ƙarfe ya kai tan miliyan 128.5722, kuma matsakaicin fitar da ƙarfe mai narkewa kowace rana ya kai tan miliyan 2.2. Yanayin kaya da yanayin buƙata a yanzu ya fi muni fiye da ƙarshen Satumba na bara. Ko da idan aka yi la'akari da sake fara samarwa a watan Janairu, ana sa ran samar da ƙarfe mai narkewa ba zai koma tan miliyan 2.2 a kowace rana ba.
Na biyu, daga mahangar kididdiga, tushen kwangilar 2205 gabaɗaya ana kiyaye shi a yuan 70-80/ton a watan Fabrairu da Maris na kowace shekara. Tushen kwangilar 2205 na yanzu yana kusa da 0, koda kuwa farashin tabo kamar super powder yana da ƙaruwar yuan 100/ton, idan aka yi la'akari da ƙarfin tushen, ƙimar bin diddigin faifai ma tana da iyaka sosai. Bugu da ƙari, farashin tashar jiragen ruwa na yau da kullun na super special foda gabaɗaya yana kusa da yuan 470/ton, kuma babu wani sharaɗi da zai sa ya tashi zuwa yuan 570/ton.
A ƙarshe, daga mahangar alaƙar kayayyakin baƙi, saboda ƙarancin tallafin farashin ƙarfe, raguwar sa zai kuma haifar da raguwar daidaita ma'adinan ƙarfe. A halin yanzu, buƙatar sake amfani da ƙarfe a lokacin hutun bazara ta cika, kuma buƙatar da ake gani ba ta da kyau. Dangane da kaya, kodayake har yanzu kayayyakin jama'a suna ƙarewa, jimillar kayan da ake samarwa a masana'antar ƙarfe sun fara ƙaruwa, wanda ke nuna ƙarancin buƙatar ajiya a wannan hunturu. Saboda hauhawar farashin da ake samu a yanzu da kuma rashin kwarin gwiwa ga buƙata ta gaba, 'yan kasuwa ba su da sha'awar adanawa a lokacin hunturu. A gaban matsin lamba na ƙasa akan ƙarfe, a bayyane yake cewa ba za a iya barin ma'adinan ƙarfe shi kaɗai ba.
Gabaɗaya, hauhawar ma'adinan ƙarfe a cikin hasashen kasuwa ba ta daɗewa ba, yayin da koma bayan tattalin arziki ke da tasiri mai zurfi.