Tun daga tsakiyar watan Oktoba, saboda sassautawar da aka samu a fannin rarraba wutar lantarki a masana'antar da kuma ci gaba da farfado da bangaren samar da kayayyaki, farashin makomar ferroalloy ya ci gaba da faduwa, inda mafi karancin farashin ferrosilicon ya fadi zuwa yuan 9,930 a kowace tan, kuma mafi karancin farashin silicomanganese a yuan 8,800 a kowace tan. Dangane da farfado da wadata da kuma bukatar da aka samu a da, mun yi imanin cewa ferroalloys za su ci gaba da kasancewa cikin yanayin koma-baya, amma koma-baya da sararin samaniya za su fuskanci canje-canje a farashin kayan da aka yi amfani da su ta hanyar carbon a karshen farashi.
Samar da kayayyaki na ci gaba da ƙaruwa
A cikin 'yan kwanakin nan, masana'antun ferrosilicon da yawa a Zhongwei, Ningxia sun gabatar da aikace-aikacen katse wutar lantarki na tanderun ruwa da ke ƙarƙashin ruwa. Duk da haka, tashar wutar lantarki ta wani kamfanin ƙarfe a Guizhou ba ta da kwal da za a saya, wanda ke nuna cewa tana iya dakatar da samarwa. An sami cikas ga ƙarancin wutar lantarki a ɓangaren samar da kayayyaki lokaci zuwa lokaci, amma kariyar samar da kwal mai zafi ya haifar da babban tasiri, kuma samar da ferroalloy yana ci gaba da ƙaruwa. A halin yanzu, fitar da ferrosilicon a cikin kamfanonin samfurin shine tan 87,000, ƙaruwar tan miliyan 4 daga makon da ya gabata; ƙimar aiki shine 37.26%, ƙaruwar maki 1.83 daga makon da ya gabata. Samar da kayayyaki ya sake farfadowa tsawon makonni biyu a jere. A lokaci guda, fitar da silico-manganese a cikin kamfanonin samfurin shine tan 153,700, ƙaruwar tan 1,600 daga makon da ya gabata; ƙimar aiki shine 52.56%, ƙaruwar maki 1.33 daga makon da ya gabata. Samar da sinadarin silicomanganese ya karu tsawon makonni biyar a jere.
A lokaci guda kuma, samar da ƙarfe ya ƙaru. Sabbin bayanai sun nuna cewa yawan fitar da manyan kayayyakin ƙarfe guda biyar a ƙasa ya kai tan miliyan 9.219, wanda ya ɗan samu koma baya idan aka kwatanta da makon da ya gabata, kuma matsakaicin yawan fitar da ɗanyen ƙarfe a kowace rana shi ma ya ɗan samu koma baya kaɗan. A cikin kwata uku na farko na wannan shekarar, yawan fitar da ɗanyen ƙarfe a cikin gida ya ƙaru da kimanin tan miliyan 16 idan aka kwatanta da wannan lokacin a bara, wanda har yanzu bai kai matsayin da Ma'aikatar Masana'antu da Fasahar Bayanai ta tsara don masana'antar ƙarfe ba. Ba zai yiwu a sami ƙaruwa sosai a watan Nuwamba ba, kuma ana sa ran buƙatar ferroalloys gaba ɗaya za ta yi rauni.
Bayan farashin ferroalloy futures ya faɗi sosai, yawan rasitin ajiya ya ragu sosai. Manyan rangwame a faifai, ƙaruwar sha'awar sauya rasitin ajiya zuwa tabo, ƙari ga fa'idar farashin maki mai rahusa, duk sun taimaka wajen raguwar yawan rasitin ajiya. Daga mahangar kaya na kamfanoni, kayan silicomanganese sun ragu kaɗan, wanda ke nuna cewa wadatar ta ɗan yi kaɗan.
Idan aka yi la'akari da yanayin da Hegang ya ɗauka na ɗaukar ƙarfe a watan Oktoba, farashin ferrosilicon shine yuan 16,000 a kowace tan kuma farashin silicomanganese shine yuan 12,800 a kowace tan. Farashin tayin ƙarfe ya fi tsada fiye da farashin gaba na makon da ya gabata. Yana iya yin mummunan tasiri ga farashin ferroalloys.
Tallafin kuɗi har yanzu yana nan
Bayan da farashin ferroalloy futures ya faɗi sosai, ya sami tallafi kusa da farashin da aka kashe. Daga hangen farashin samar da kayayyaki na baya-bayan nan, ferrosilicon yana kan yuan 9,800/ton, raguwar yuan 200/ton idan aka kwatanta da lokacin da ya gabata, galibi saboda raguwar farashin blue carbon. A halin yanzu, farashin blue gawayi shine yuan 3,000/ton, kuma farashin coke futures ya ragu sosai zuwa kusan yuan 3,000/ton. Faduwar farashin blue gawayi a lokacin da ya gabata babban haɗari ne na raguwar farashin ferrosilicon. Idan hauhawar farashin blue gawayi ya faɗi, farashin blue gawayi zai ragu zuwa kusan yuan 2,000/ton, kuma farashin ferrosilicon zai kasance kusan yuan 8,600/ton. Idan aka yi la'akari da yadda kasuwar blue carbon ta yi aiki kwanan nan, an sami raguwa sosai a wasu yankuna. Hakazalika, farashin siliconanganese shine yuan 8500/ton. Idan farashin coke na ƙarfe na biyu ya faɗi da yuan 1,000 a kowace tan, farashin silicomanganese zai ragu zuwa yuan 7800 a kowace tan. A cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci, tallafin kuɗin da ba a daidaita ba na yuan 9,800 a kowace tan don ferrosilicon da yuan 8,500 a kowace tan don silicomanganese har yanzu yana da tasiri, amma a matsakaicin lokaci, farashin kayan ƙarfe mai launin shuɗi da coke na ƙarfe na biyu har yanzu suna da haɗarin da ba su dace ba, wanda zai iya haifar da farashin ferroalloys. A hankali ya ragu.
Mayar da hankali kan gyaran tushe
Tushen kwangilar ferrosilicon 2201 shine yuan 1,700/ton, kuma tushen kwangilar silico-manganese 2201 shine yuan 1,500/ton. Rangwamen faifai har yanzu yana da mahimmanci. Babban rangwame akan faifai na gaba shine ɗaya daga cikin abubuwan da ke tallafawa sake dawowa a cikin faifai. Duk da haka, ra'ayin kasuwar tabo na yanzu ba shi da tabbas kuma saurin sake dawowa na gaba bai isa ba. Bugu da ƙari, saboda raguwar farashin samar da tabo, akwai babban yuwuwar cewa za a gyara tushen ta hanyar raguwar tabo yayin da ake haɗuwa da gaba.
Gabaɗaya, mun yi imanin cewa raguwar farashin kwantiragin 2201 bai canza ba. Ana ba da shawarar a rage yawan amfani da gangami kuma a kula da matsin lamba kusa da ferrosilicon yuan 11500-12000 yuan/ton, silicomanganese yuan 9800-10300 yuan/ton, da ferrosilicon yuan 8000-8600 yuan/ton. Tan da silicomanganese yuan 7500-7800 yuan/ton suna da tallafi a kusa.