A shekarar 2019, yawan amfani da ƙarfe mai yawa a duniya ya kai tan biliyan 1.89, wanda a bayyane yake cewa China na amfani da ƙarfe mai yawa ya kai tan miliyan 950, wanda ya kai kashi 50% na jimillar duniya. A shekarar 2019, yawan amfani da ƙarfe mai yawa a China ya kai kololuwar tarihi, kuma yawan amfani da ƙarfe mai yawa ga kowane mutum ya kai kilogiram 659. Daga gogewar ci gaban ƙasashen da suka ci gaba a Turai da Amurka, lokacin da yawan amfani da ƙarfe mai yawa ga kowane mutum ya kai kilogiram 500, matakin amfani zai ragu. Saboda haka, ana iya hasashen cewa matakin amfani da ƙarfe a China ya kai kololuwar, zai shiga wani lokaci mai ɗorewa, kuma a ƙarshe buƙatar za ta ragu. A shekarar 2020, yawan amfani da ƙarfe mai yawa a duniya da kuma yawan amfani da shi ya kai tan biliyan 1.89 da tan biliyan 1.88 bi da bi. Bakin ƙarfe da aka samar da shi da ƙarfe a matsayin babban kayan albarkatun ƙasa ya kai kimanin tan biliyan 1.31, wanda ya cinye kimanin tan biliyan 2.33 na ƙarfe, wanda ya ɗan yi ƙasa da yadda aka samar da tan biliyan 2.4 na ƙarfe a cikin shekarar.
Ta hanyar nazarin fitar da ɗanyen ƙarfe da kuma amfani da ƙarfe da aka gama, ana iya nuna buƙatar kasuwa ta ma'adinan ƙarfe. Domin taimakawa masu karatu su fahimci alaƙar da ke tsakanin waɗannan ukun, wannan takarda ta yi ɗan gajeren bincike daga fannoni uku: fitar da ɗanyen ƙarfe a duniya, yawan amfani da shi da kuma tsarin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe a duniya.
Fitar da ɗanyen ƙarfe ta duniya
A shekarar 2020, yawan fitar da danyen karfe a duniya ya kai tan biliyan 1.88. Yawan fitar da danyen karfe daga China, Indiya, Japan, Amurka, Rasha da Koriya ta Kudu ya kai kashi 56.7%, 5.3%, 4.4%, 3.9%, 3.8% da 3.6% na jimillar fitar da kayayyaki a duniya bi da bi, kuma jimillar fitar da danyen karfe daga kasashe shida ya kai kashi 77.5% na jimillar fitar da kayayyaki a duniya. A shekarar 2020, yawan fitar da danyen karfe a duniya ya karu da kashi 30.8% a duk shekara.
Yawan fitar da danyen karfe da China ta yi a shekarar 2020 ya kai tan biliyan 1.065. Bayan da ta karya tan miliyan 100 a karon farko a shekarar 1996, yawan fitar da danyen karfe da China ta yi ya kai tan miliyan 490 a shekarar 2007, wanda ya ninka sau hudu a cikin shekaru 12, inda matsakaicin karuwar shekara-shekara ya kai kashi 14.2%. Daga shekarar 2001 zuwa 2007, karuwar shekara-shekara ta kai kashi 21.1%, inda ta kai kashi 27.2% (2004). Bayan shekarar 2007, sakamakon matsalar kudi, takaita samar da kayayyaki da sauran dalilai, karuwar samar da danyen karfe da China ta samu ya ragu, har ma ya nuna karuwar da ba ta dace ba a shekarar 2015. Saboda haka, za a iya ganin cewa matakin ci gaban ƙarfe da ƙarfe na China ya wuce, karuwar fitarwa a nan gaba ta takaita, kuma daga karshe za a samu karuwar da ba ta dace ba.
Daga shekarar 2010 zuwa 2020, yawan karuwar fitar da danyen karfe a Indiya ya kasance na biyu bayan China, inda matsakaicin karuwar da ake samu a kowace shekara ya kai kashi 3.8%; yawan fitar da danyen karfe ya wuce tan miliyan 100 a karon farko a shekarar 2017, inda ya zama kasa ta biyar da ke fitar da danyen karfe sama da tan miliyan 100 a tarihi, kuma ya zarce Japan a shekarar 2018, inda ya zo na biyu a duniya.
Amurka ita ce ƙasa ta farko da ke fitar da tan miliyan 100 na ɗanyen ƙarfe a kowace shekara (an samu sama da tan miliyan 100 na ɗanyen ƙarfe a karon farko a shekarar 1953), inda ta kai matsakaicin yawan fitar da tan miliyan 137 a shekarar 1973, inda ta kasance ta farko a duniya a fannin fitar da ƙarfe daga 1950 zuwa 1972. Duk da haka, tun daga shekarar 1982, fitar da ƙarfe a Amurka ya ragu, kuma fitar da ƙarfe a shekarar 2020 ya kai tan miliyan 72.7 kacal.
Amfanin da ake samu a duniya daga danyen karfe
A shekarar 2019, yawan amfani da ƙarfen da ake samu a duniya ya kai tan biliyan 1.89. Yawan amfani da ƙarfen da ake samu a China, Indiya, Amurka, Japan, Koriya ta Kudu da Rasha ya kai kashi 50%, 5.8%, 5.7%, 3.7%, 2.9% da 2.5% na jimillar jimillar duniya bi da bi. A shekarar 2019, yawan amfani da ƙarfen da ake samu a duniya ya karu da kashi 52.7% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar 2009, inda matsakaicin karuwarsa ta kai kashi 4.3%.
Yawan amfani da ƙarfen da China ke yi a shekarar 2019 ya kusa kai tan biliyan 1. Bayan da ta karya tan miliyan 100 a karon farko a shekarar 1993, yawan amfani da ƙarfen da China ke yi a shekarar 2002 ya kai tan miliyan 200, sannan ta shiga wani lokaci mai sauri, inda ta kai tan miliyan 570 a shekarar 2009, wanda ya karu da kashi 179.2% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar 2002 da kuma matsakaicin yawan ci gaban da ake samu a kowace shekara na kashi 15.8%. Bayan shekarar 2009, saboda matsalar kuɗi da daidaita tattalin arziki, karuwar buƙatu ta ragu. Yawan amfani da ƙarfen da China ke yi a shekarar 2014 da 2015 ya nuna raguwar ci gaba a shekarar 2016, kuma ya koma ga ci gaba mai kyau a shekarar 2016, amma ci gaban ya ragu a cikin 'yan shekarun nan.
Yawan amfani da ƙarfen da Indiya ta yi a shekarar 2019 ya kai tan miliyan 108.86, wanda ya zarce Amurka kuma ya zo na biyu a duniya. A shekarar 2019, yawan amfani da ƙarfen da Indiya ke yi ya karu da kashi 69.1% idan aka kwatanta da shekarar 2009, inda matsakaicin ƙaruwar da ake samu a kowace shekara ya kai kashi 5.4%, wanda hakan ya sa ta zama ta farko a duniya a wannan lokacin.
Amurka ita ce ƙasa ta farko a duniya da yawan amfani da ƙarfen da ake samu ya wuce tan miliyan 100, kuma tana matsayi na farko a duniya tsawon shekaru da yawa. Sakamakon rikicin kuɗi na 2008, yawan amfani da ƙarfen da ake samu a Amurka ya ragu sosai a shekarar 2009, kusan kashi 1/3 ƙasa da na shekarar 2008, tan miliyan 69.4 kacal. Tun daga shekarar 1993, yawan amfani da ƙarfen da ake samu a Amurka bai kai tan miliyan 100 ba sai a shekarar 2009 da 2010.
Yawan amfani da danyen ƙarfe a duniya ga kowane mutum
A shekarar 2019, yawan amfani da ƙarfen da ake samu a duniya a kowace mutum shine kilogiram 245. Koriya ta Kudu ce ta fi yawan amfani da ƙarfen da ake samu a kowace mutum (kilogiram 1082 a kowace mutum). Sauran manyan ƙasashe masu cin ƙarfen da ake samu a kowace mutum, waɗanda suka fi yawan amfani da shi a kowace mutum, sune China (kilogiram 659 a kowace mutum), Japan (kilogiram 550 a kowace mutum), Jamus (kilogiram 443 a kowace mutum), Turkiyya (kilogiram 332 a kowace mutum), Rasha (kilogiram 322 a kowace mutum) da Amurka (kilogiram 265 a kowace mutum).
Masana'antu tsari ne da ɗan adam ke mayar da albarkatun ƙasa zuwa arzikin zamantakewa. Idan arzikin zamantakewa ya taru zuwa wani mataki kuma masana'antu suka shiga lokacin da ya girma, manyan canje-canje za su faru a tsarin tattalin arziki, amfani da ƙarfe mai yawa da muhimman albarkatun ma'adinai za su fara raguwa, kuma saurin amfani da makamashi shi ma zai ragu. Misali, yawan amfani da ƙarfe mai yawa ga kowane mutum a Amurka ya kasance a matsayi mai girma a shekarun 1970, wanda ya kai matsakaicin kilogiram 711 (1973). Tun daga lokacin, yawan amfani da ƙarfe mai yawa ga kowane mutum a Amurka ya fara raguwa, tare da raguwar yawan amfani da ƙarfe mai yawa daga shekarun 1980 zuwa 1990. Ya faɗi ƙasa (226kg) a shekarar 2009 kuma a hankali ya koma kilogiram 330 har zuwa 2019.
A shekarar 2020, jimillar yawan mutanen Indiya, Kudancin Amurka da Afirka za su kai biliyan 1.37, miliyan 650 da biliyan 1.29 bi da bi, wanda zai zama babban wurin bunkasa bukatar karafa a nan gaba, amma zai dogara ne da ci gaban tattalin arzikin kasashe daban-daban a wancan lokacin.
Tsarin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na duniya
Tsarin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na duniya ya ƙunshi farashin haɗin gwiwa na dogon lokaci da farashin ma'auni. Farashin haɗin gwiwa na dogon lokaci ya kasance mafi mahimmancin tsarin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe a duniya. Babban aikinsa shi ne cewa ɓangarorin samarwa da buƙata na ma'adinan ƙarfe suna kulle adadin wadata ko adadin siye ta hanyar kwangilolin dogon lokaci. Kalmomin gabaɗaya shekaru 5-10 ne, ko ma shekaru 20-30, amma farashin ba a ƙayyade shi ba. Tun daga shekarun 1980, ma'aunin farashin tsarin haɗin gwiwa na dogon lokaci ya canza daga farashin FOB na asali zuwa farashin da aka fi so tare da jigilar kaya ta teku.
Tsarin farashin da tsarin farashin haɗin gwiwa na dogon lokaci ke bi shi ne, a kowace shekarar kuɗi, manyan masu samar da ma'adinan ƙarfe na duniya suna tattaunawa da manyan abokan cinikinsu don tantance farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na shekarar kuɗi mai zuwa. Da zarar an ƙayyade farashin, dole ne ɓangarorin biyu su aiwatar da shi cikin shekara guda bisa ga farashin da aka tattauna. Bayan kowace ɓangaren mai buƙatar ma'adinan ƙarfe da kowace ɓangaren mai samar da ma'adinan ƙarfe sun cimma yarjejeniya, za a kammala tattaunawar, kuma farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na duniya zai ƙare daga lokacin. Wannan yanayin tattaunawa shine yanayin "fara bin yanayin". Ma'aunin farashi shine FOB. Ƙara ma'adinan ƙarfe mai inganci iri ɗaya a duk faɗin duniya iri ɗaya ne, wato, "FOB, ƙaruwa iri ɗaya".
Farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe a Japan ya mamaye kasuwar ma'adinan ƙarfe ta duniya da tan 20 a shekarar 1980 zuwa 2001. Bayan shiga ƙarni na 21, masana'antar ƙarfe da ƙarfe ta China ta bunƙasa kuma ta fara yin tasiri mai mahimmanci kan tsarin samarwa da buƙata na ma'adinan ƙarfe na duniya. Samar da ma'adinan ƙarfe ya fara kasa cimma saurin faɗaɗa ƙarfin samar da ƙarfe da ƙarfe a duniya, kuma farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na ƙasashen duniya ya fara tashi sosai, wanda hakan ya shimfida harsashin "raguwa" na tsarin farashin yarjejeniyar dogon lokaci.
A shekarar 2008, BHP, vale da Rio Tinto sun fara neman hanyoyin farashi masu dacewa da muradun kansu. Bayan da vale suka tattauna farashin farko, Rio Tinto ya yi fafutukar neman ƙarin ƙaruwa shi kaɗai, kuma tsarin "binciken farko" ya karye a karon farko. A shekarar 2009, bayan da masana'antun ƙarfe a Japan da Koriya ta Kudu suka tabbatar da "farashin farawa" tare da manyan ma'aikatan hakar ma'adinai guda uku, China ba ta amince da raguwar kashi 33% ba, amma ta cimma yarjejeniya da FMG kan ƙaramin farashi. Tun daga lokacin, tsarin "fara bin yanayin" ya ƙare a hukumance, kuma tsarin farashin index ya fara aiki.
A halin yanzu, ma'aunin ma'adinan ƙarfe da aka fitar a ƙasashen duniya sun haɗa da Platts iodex, ma'aunin TSI, ma'aunin mbio da ma'aunin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na China (ciopi). Tun daga shekarar 2010, BHP, Vale, FMG da Rio Tinto sun zaɓi ma'aunin Platts a matsayin tushen farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na duniya. An fitar da ma'aunin mbio ta hannun mai shelar ƙarfe na Burtaniya a watan Mayu na 2009, bisa ga farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na 62% a tashar jiragen ruwa ta Qingdao, China (CFR). Kamfanin SBB na Burtaniya ne ya fitar da ma'aunin TSI a watan Afrilun 2006. A halin yanzu, ana amfani da shi ne kawai a matsayin tushen sasantawa kan musayar ma'adinan ƙarfe a musayar Singapore da Chicago, kuma ba shi da wani tasiri a kasuwar cinikin ma'adinan ƙarfe. Ƙungiyar Masana'antar Iron da Karfe ta China, Ƙungiyar Kasuwanci ta Sin da Sin Minmetals da Ƙungiyar Masana'antar Sin da Masana'antu ta China Minmetals sun fitar da ma'aunin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na China tare. An fara gwajinsa a watan Agusta na 2011. Ma'aunin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na ƙasar Sin ya ƙunshi ƙananan ma'auni guda biyu: ma'aunin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe na cikin gida da ma'aunin farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe da aka shigo da su daga ƙasashen waje, duka sun dogara ne akan farashin da aka samu a watan Afrilun 1994 (maki 100).
A shekarar 2011, farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe da aka shigo da su daga China ya zarce dala $190 a kowace tan, wanda ya kasance mafi girma a tarihi, kuma matsakaicin farashin shekara-shekara na wannan shekarar shine dala $162.3 a kowace tan. Daga baya, farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe da aka shigo da su daga China ya fara raguwa kowace shekara, inda ya kai ƙasa a shekarar 2016, inda matsakaicin farashin shekara-shekara ya kai dala $51.4 a kowace tan. Bayan shekarar 2016, farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe da aka shigo da su daga China ya sake farfadowa a hankali. Zuwa shekarar 2021, matsakaicin farashin shekaru 3, matsakaicin farashin shekaru 5 da matsakaicin farashin shekaru 10 sun kasance dala $109.1 a kowace tan busasshe, dala $93.2 a kowace tan busasshe da dala $94.6 a kowace tan busasshe.