A shekarar 2019, yawan danyen karafa da ake iya gani a duniya ya kai ton biliyan 1.89, daga cikin abin da kasar Sin ta yi amfani da shi ya kai tan miliyan 950, wanda ya kai kashi 50% na adadin duniya.A shekarar 2019, yawan danyen karfen da kasar Sin ke amfani da shi ya kai wani matsayi mafi girma, kuma yawan danyen karfen da aka yi amfani da shi ga kowane mutum ya kai kilogiram 659.Daga kwarewar ci gaban kasashen da suka ci gaba a Turai da Amurka, lokacin da ake ganin cin danyen karfe ga kowane mutum ya kai kilogiram 500, matakin amfani zai ragu.Sabili da haka, ana iya hasashen cewa matakin amfani da karafa na kasar Sin ya kai kololuwa, zai shiga cikin kwanciyar hankali, kuma a karshe bukatar za ta ragu.A shekarar 2020, yadda ake amfani da danyen karfe a duniya ya kai tan biliyan 1.89 da tan biliyan 1.88 bi da bi.Danyen karfen da aka samar da taman karfe a matsayin babban kayan masarufi ya kai ton biliyan 1.31, wanda ya cinye kusan tan biliyan 2.33 na taman tama, dan kadan ya yi kasa da abin da aka samu a shekarar 2.4.
Ta hanyar nazarin abubuwan da ake fitar da danyen karfe da yadda ake amfani da karafa da aka gama, ana iya nuna bukatar kasuwar tama.Domin taimakawa masu karatu su kara fahimtar alakar da ke tsakanin ukun, wannan takarda ta yi takaitaccen nazari daga bangarori uku: fitar da danyen karfen duniya, yadda ake amfani da shi da kuma tsarin farashin tama na duniya.
Duniya danyen karfe fitarwa
A shekarar 2020, an fitar da danyen karafa a duniya ya kai tan biliyan 1.88.Danyen karfen da China, Indiya, Japan, Amurka, Rasha da Koriya ta Kudu suka fitar ya kai kashi 56.7%, 5.3%, 4.4%, 3.9%, 3.8% da 3.6% na jimillar da ake hakowa a duniya, da jimillar danyen karfen. Abubuwan da kasashen shida suka fitar ya kai kashi 77.5% na adadin abin da aka fitar a duniya.A shekarar 2020, yawan danyen karafa na duniya ya karu da kashi 30.8% a duk shekara.
Danyen karfen da kasar Sin ta fitar a shekarar 2020 ya kai tan biliyan 1.065.Bayan da ya karya ton miliyan 100 a karon farko a shekarar 1996, yawan danyen karfen da kasar Sin ta samu ya kai tan miliyan 490 a shekarar 2007, wanda ya ninka sau hudu cikin shekaru 12, inda aka samu karuwar matsakaicin kashi 14.2 cikin dari a kowace shekara.Daga 2001 zuwa 2007, yawan ci gaban shekara ya kai 21.1%, ya kai 27.2% (2004).Bayan shekara ta 2007, matsalar kudi, hani da hako hako, da sauran abubuwan da suka shafi tattalin arziki, karuwar yawan danyen karafa na kasar Sin ya ragu, har ma ya nuna rashin bunkasuwa a shekarar 2015. Don haka, ana iya ganin cewa, matakin da kasar Sin ta dauka cikin sauri na karafa da karafa, ya ragu matuka. ci gaban karfe ya shuɗe, haɓakar haɓakar haɓakar kayan aiki na gaba yana iyakance, kuma a ƙarshe za a sami ci gaba mara kyau.
Daga shekarar 2010 zuwa 2020, karuwar yawan danyen karafa na Indiya ya kasance na biyu bayan kasar Sin, tare da matsakaicin karuwar kashi 3.8% a shekara;Danyen karfen da ake fitarwa ya haura tan miliyan 100 a karon farko a shekarar 2017, inda ta zama kasa ta biyar da ta samu danyen karfe sama da tan miliyan 100 a tarihi, sannan ta zarce kasar Japan a shekarar 2018, wadda ke matsayi na biyu a duniya.
Amurka ita ce kasa ta farko da ke fitar da danyen karfe ton miliyan 100 a shekara (fiye da tan miliyan 100 na danyen karfe aka samu a karon farko a shekarar 1953), wanda ya kai matsakaicin ton miliyan 137 a shekarar 1973, wanda ya yi matsayi na farko. a duniya wajen fitar da danyen karafa daga shekarar 1950 zuwa 1972. Sai dai tun daga shekarar 1982, yawan danyen karfen da ake hakowa a Amurka ya ragu, kuma yawan danyen karfe a shekarar 2020 ya kai tan miliyan 72.7 kacal.
Duniya ta bayyana cin danyen karfe
A cikin 2019, da alama yawan amfani da danyen karfe a duniya ya kai tan biliyan 1.89.Yawan danyen karafa da aka bayyana a China, Indiya, Amurka, Japan, Koriya ta Kudu da Rasha ya kai kashi 50%, 5.8%, 5.7%, 3.7%, 2.9% da 2.5% na jimillar duniya bi da bi.A cikin 2019, da alama yawan amfani da danyen karfe a duniya ya karu da kashi 52.7% sama da 2009, tare da matsakaicin ci gaban shekara-shekara na 4.3%.
Yawan danyen karafa da kasar Sin ta yi a shekarar 2019 ya kai kusan tan biliyan 1.Bayan da ya karya tan miliyan 100 a karon farko a shekarar 1993, yawan danyen karfen da kasar Sin ta yi amfani da shi ya kai tan miliyan 200 a shekarar 2002, sa'an nan ya shiga wani lokaci mai saurin bunkasuwa, wanda ya kai tan miliyan 570 a shekarar 2009, wanda ya karu da kashi 179.2 bisa dari bisa dari. 2002 da matsakaicin girma na shekara-shekara na 15.8%.Bayan shekarar 2009, saboda rikicin kudi da daidaita tattalin arziki, karuwar bukatar ta ragu.Yawan cin danyen karafa da kasar Sin ta yi ya nuna rashin ci gaba a shekarar 2014 da 2015, kuma ya dawo da ci gaba mai kyau a shekarar 2016, amma ci gaban ya ragu a 'yan shekarun nan.
Yawan danyen karafa da Indiya ta yi a shekarar 2019 ya kai tan miliyan 108.86, wanda ya zarce Amurka da matsayi na biyu a duniya.A cikin 2019, da alama yawan amfani da ɗanyen ƙarfe na Indiya ya karu da kashi 69.1% sama da 2009, tare da matsakaicin girma na shekara-shekara na 5.4%, matsayi na farko a duniya a daidai wannan lokacin.
Amurka ita ce kasa ta farko a duniya wadda a fili take yawan cin danyen karafa da ya haura tan miliyan 100, kuma ita ce ta farko a duniya tsawon shekaru da dama.Rikicin kuɗi na 2008 ya shafa, da alama yawan amfani da ɗanyen ƙarfe a Amurka ya ragu sosai a cikin 2009, kusan 1/3 ƙasa da na 2008, ton miliyan 69.4 kawai.Tun daga 1993, da alama yawan amfani da danyen karafa a Amurka bai kai tan miliyan 100 ba kawai a cikin 2009 da 2010.
Duniya ga kowa da kowa yana bayyana cin danyen karfe
A shekarar 2019, yawan danyen karafa da ake amfani da shi a duk duniya ya kai kilogiram 245.Mafi girman yawan ɗanyen ƙarfe da ake iya gani a kowani kowa shine Koriya ta Kudu (1082 kg / mutum).Sauran manyan ƙasashe masu cin ɗanyen ƙarfe waɗanda ke da mafi girman amfanin kowane ɗan adam sune China (659 kg / mutum), Japan (kg / mutum 550), Jamus (kg / mutum 443), Turkiyya (332 kg / mutum), Rasha (322 kg / mutum) mutum) da kuma Amurka (265 kg / mutum).
Samar da masana'antu wani tsari ne da dan Adam ke canza albarkatun kasa zuwa arzikin zamantakewa.Lokacin da dukiyar al'umma ta taru zuwa wani matakin da masana'antu suka shiga lokacin da suka girma, za a sami gagarumin sauye-sauye a tsarin tattalin arziki, amfani da danyen karfe da muhimman albarkatun ma'adinai za su fara raguwa, saurin amfani da makamashi kuma zai ragu.Misali, da alama yawan amfani da danyen karfe ga kowane mutum a Amurka ya kasance a matsayi mai girma a cikin shekarun 1970, wanda ya kai kilogiram 711 (1973).Tun daga wannan lokacin, da alama yawan amfani da danyen karfen kowane mutum a Amurka ya fara raguwa, tare da raguwa mai yawa daga shekarun 1980 zuwa 1990.Ya fadi zuwa kasa (226kg) a cikin 2009 kuma a hankali ya koma 330kg har zuwa 2019.
A shekarar 2020, jimillar al'ummar Indiya da Amurka ta Kudu da Afirka za su kai biliyan 1.37 da miliyan 650 da kuma biliyan 1.29, wanda shi ne babban wurin bunkasar bukatar karafa a nan gaba, amma zai dogara ne kan ci gaban tattalin arzikin kasashe daban-daban. a lokacin.
Na'urar farashin ƙarfe ta duniya
Tsarin farashin ƙarfe na duniya ya ƙunshi farashin haɗin gwiwa na dogon lokaci da farashin ƙididdiga.Farashin haɗin gwiwa na dogon lokaci ya kasance mafi mahimmancin tsarin farashin ƙarfe a duniya.Babban abin da ke tattare da shi shi ne cewa sassan samarwa da buƙatun ƙarfe na ƙarfe suna kulle adadin wadatar ko adadin sayayya ta hanyar kwangiloli na dogon lokaci.Kalmar ita ce gabaɗaya shekaru 5-10, ko ma shekaru 20-30, amma ba a kayyade farashin.Tun daga shekarun 1980s, ma'auni na farashi na tsarin farashi na ƙungiyoyi na dogon lokaci ya canza daga ainihin farashin FOB zuwa mashahurin farashi tare da jigilar teku.
Al'adar farashi na tsarin farashi na ƙungiyoyi na dogon lokaci shine cewa a kowace shekara ta kasafin kuɗi, manyan dillalan ƙarfe na duniya suna tattaunawa da manyan abokan cinikinsu don tantance farashin ƙarfe na ƙarfe na shekara mai zuwa.Da zarar an ƙayyade farashin, dole ne bangarorin biyu su aiwatar da shi a cikin shekara guda bisa ga farashin da aka tattauna.Bayan duk wani bangare na masu neman karafa da duk wani bangaren masu samar da tama da tamanin sun cimma matsaya, za a kammala tattaunawar, kuma za a kammala farashin tama na kasa da kasa daga nan gaba.Wannan yanayin shawarwari shine yanayin "fara bin yanayin".Ma'aunin farashi shine FOB.Ƙarfin ƙarfe mai inganci iri ɗaya a duk faɗin duniya iri ɗaya ne, wato, "FOB, karuwa ɗaya".
Farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe a Japan ya mamaye kasuwannin duniya da tan 20 a shekarar 1980 ~ 2001. Bayan shiga cikin ƙarni na 21, masana'antar ƙarfe da karafa ta kasar Sin ta bunƙasa, kuma ta fara yin tasiri mai mahimmanci kan samarwa da buƙatun ma'adinan ƙarfe na duniya. .Noman tama na ƙarfe ya fara kasa cika saurin faɗaɗa ƙarfin ƙarfe da ƙarfe na duniya, kuma farashin ƙarfe na ƙasa ya fara hauhawa sosai, wanda ya aza harsashi na "raguwar" tsarin farashin yarjejeniya na dogon lokaci.
A cikin 2008, BHP, vale da Rio Tinto sun fara neman hanyoyin farashi masu dacewa da bukatun kansu.Bayan da vale ya yi shawarwari game da farashin farko, Rio Tinto ya yi yaƙi don haɓaka mafi girma shi kaɗai, kuma samfurin "biyu na farko" ya karye a karon farko.A cikin 2009, bayan da masana'antun karfe a Japan da Koriya ta Kudu sun tabbatar da "farashin farawa" tare da manyan masu hakar ma'adinai guda uku, China ba ta yarda da raguwar 33% ba, amma ta cimma yarjejeniya tare da FMG akan farashi mai sauƙi.Tun daga wannan lokacin, samfurin "fara bin yanayin" a hukumance ya ƙare, kuma tsarin ƙimar ƙididdiga ya kasance.
A halin yanzu, ma'aunin ƙarfe da aka fitar a duniya musamman sun haɗa da Platts iodex, TSI index, mbio index da China iron ore index (ciopi).Tun daga 2010, BHP, Vale, FMG da Rio Tinto sun zaɓi fihirisar Platts a matsayin tushen farashin ƙarfe na ƙasa da ƙasa.Mai ba da sanarwar karafa na Biritaniya ne ya fitar da ma'anar mbio a watan Mayun 2009, bisa farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe 62% a tashar jirgin ruwa ta Qingdao, China (CFR).Kamfanin SBB na Biritaniya ya fito da ma'aunin TSI a watan Afrilun 2006. A halin yanzu, ana amfani da shi ne kawai a matsayin ginshiƙi don daidaita ma'amalar musayar ƙarfe na ƙarfe akan musayar Singapore da Chicago, kuma ba shi da tasiri a kasuwar kasuwancin tabo ta ƙarfe. ore.Kungiyar masana'antun tama da karafa ta kasar Sin, da kungiyar 'yan kasuwa ta kasar Sin da ke shigo da sinadarai da ke shigo da sinadarai, da rukunin kamfanonin karafa da ma'adinai na kasar Sin, sun fitar da ma'aunin farashin tama na kasar Sin a hadin gwiwa.An saka shi a cikin gwaji a watan Agustan 2011. Ma'aunin farashin ƙarfe na kasar Sin ya ƙunshi ma'auni biyu: ma'aunin farashin ƙarfe na cikin gida da ma'aunin farashin ƙarfe da aka shigo da shi, duka bisa farashin a Afrilu 1994 (maki 100).
A shekarar 2011, farashin tama da ake shigowa da su kasar Sin ya zarce dalar Amurka 190/ busasshen tan, wanda ya yi tsayin daka, kuma matsakaicin farashin shekara na wannan shekarar ya kai dalar Amurka $162.3/ busasshen tan.Bayan haka, farashin ma'adinan ƙarfe da ake shigowa da su a kasar Sin ya fara raguwa kowace shekara, inda ya kai ga ƙarshe a shekarar 2016, tare da matsakaicin farashin dalar Amurka 51.4 a kowace shekara.Bayan shekarar 2016, farashin ma'adinin karfen da kasar Sin ta shigo da shi ya farfado sannu a hankali.A shekarar 2021, matsakaicin farashin shekaru 3, matsakaicin farashin shekaru 5 da matsakaicin matsakaicin farashin shekaru 10 sun kasance 109.1 USD / busasshen ton, 93.2 USD / busasshen ton da 94.6 USD/ busasshen ton bi da bi.